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View Full Version : Str8draw - Do I get correct odds to call turn?



Mr. Pi
03-12-2011, 06:56 PM
More of a mathematical question than anything else.
Villain was fish.
t40/t80 Blinds - 9 players

UTG: t1550 19.38 BBs
...
Hero (BB): t1950 24.38 BBs

Pre Flop: (t120) Hero is BB with :7s: :6h:
UTG calls t80, 7 folds, Hero checks

Flop: (t200) :5c: :3d:: :8d: (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets t160, Hero calls t160

Turn: (t520) :5s: (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets t240, Hero ?

Do I get good enough odds to call this bet? I figured that I have ~ 18% to improve, so that means that I have to win back ~ 6x the bet I called on the turn...right? My hand will be pretty hidden when I hit, but I don't think that villain will stack off every time. 70-80% maybe?

I knew about this rule from cash games, that you can call 3/4 of pot on flop and 1/2 pot on turn with a sd/fd, but what about SNGs? We're a lot shallower, so this changes I assume.

Pi :)

babyonboard
03-12-2011, 08:03 PM
your odds: 240 to 760=0.3, 30%. odds to str8 is ~17%. in reality u have 6 out since 2 card completes the flush and it will be a reverse implied odds situation plus it is a paired board and it could be possible that u are drawing dead now.

Mr. Pi
03-13-2011, 12:12 PM
What do you guys think what kind of pot odds/implied odds should we have in order to call with a fd/str8d on the flop?

Pi :)

babyonboard
03-13-2011, 03:29 PM
str8 draw on flop: u have 32% to catch so pot odds you can call a bet <0.32
fd on flop: u have 35% to catch so pot odds you can call a bet <0.35

BUT these numbers applies when he certainly WONT bet the turn so you will see two cards to come(ie ai otf)

if u arent sure about his turn play u have to estimate it to turn and to river and this way u get the half of the chances to improve.

implied odds calculation might be more complex, but your opponent must have enough chips/money left and u should know his playing style a bit to estimate paying out ur big hand.

Mr. Pi
03-14-2011, 11:29 AM
Yeah I was only wondering about the fact that in SNGs the extra chips what you win never worths as much as your current chips what you might loose. Thats why I think that there are some other things to consider too when we're talking about draws in SNGs , but I'm not sure how to write those down mathematically to get something more concrete.

Pi :)