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View Full Version : Lower monthly variance? More volume and lower ROI or vice-versa?



Mr. Pi
03-23-2011, 07:49 PM
So basically I'm trying to figure out that which road would mean a lower variance to ones monthly profit.

- Say I'm playing ~400 regular SNGs each month with an ROI of 10%.
- Would I get smaller swings on a monthly basis if I would play say ~1000 SNGs/month with an ROI of 5%?

(These are just estimations but I hope you get my point)

As far as I read a smaller ROI means higher swings. But would the volume difference make up for that fact and be a better solution (monthly) variance-wise?

I hope this whole question isn't too retarded,
Pi.:)

dodi89
03-23-2011, 09:27 PM
Don't care about swings, that's the secret. You will never be able to avoid them, the only thing you can do is to play your BEST always!

The most important is that if you play 1k games with 5% ROI you will make more money in the long run than with 10% roi over 400 games.

Holdenper
03-24-2011, 05:49 AM
Don't think that there's a corresponding between roi and variance. Lower roi means that u win less, like less itm, or more 2nd places. Imho you'll have 5% roi/1K SnG/month because you play more (more tables, more hours), your attention is divided, so you lose a lil' EV by not just focusing on 2-3-4 table, or playing tired, but I think swings are luck/run-related things, and you can't rly influence it

Mr. Pi
03-24-2011, 09:18 PM
Well the thing is that ROI influences swings. The higher roi you have the smaller the chances that you gonna hit a "long" breakeven or losing streak.
Pi :)

dodi89
03-25-2011, 10:38 AM
Well the thing is that ROI influences swings. The higher roi you have the smaller the chances that you gonna hit a "long" breakeven or losing streak.
Pi :)

It's true. Just don't care about swings bro. :)

Mr. Pi
03-26-2011, 11:47 AM
Don't care about swings, that's the secret. You will never be able to avoid them, the only thing you can do is to play your BEST always!


Yeah thats right. But its a good thing to minimize the swings in your game and I constantly try to find ways to do that. Yeah caring about swings doesnt make sense. But it gives you more confidence if you see that that profitline is going somewhat niceley up and stuff.

For instance calling allins light under 10BBs Blind vs Blind vs a player who you know that is pushing 100% will make your graph more swingy even tho it might be a +EV move.

Pi :)